Getting New Dark Cosmic Jhin Before 30th Drop is Extremely Unlikely

While League of Legends made their money via skin sales, fans were always excited about new skins being released. After all, what players bought is exactly what they got.

Now, for some reason, Riot are introducing what is essentially a gacha system to getting the new Dark Cosmic Erasure Jhin skin. And while the system is not as bad as some Korean gacha systems, for League that never had any, it's a travesty.

• LoL: Riot Wants Exclusive Content, But Mythic Variants Are Not It

Dark Cosmic Erasure Jhin - Drop Percentage Under 30 Capsules

A gacha system is a system that incentivizes players to purchase in-game loot boxes that give out random prizes, as a way of companies earning money for their games that are, usually, free-to-play.

The League of Legends skin sales have made it so this was unnecessary. However, the sneaky announcement of the new Dark Cosmic Erasure Jhin skin has shown that such a system is coming to LoL.

The only way of getting the Dark Cosmic Erasure Jhin is by spending around 200$, and getting it as a guaranteed 30th drop. Or, as Riot claim, with luck even before that.

But what are the chances of getting Dark Cosmic Erasure Jhin before the 30th capsule? One Redditor put in the work to calculate what the cumulative chances of getting the skin are before opening all 30 capsules needed. 

• at 3 capsules (2250RP) it's 97% of not getting the skin
• at 5 capsules (3750RP) it's 95% of not getting the skin
• at 10 capsules (7500RP) it's 90% of not getting the skin
• at 15 capsules (11250RP) it's 86% of not getting the skin
• at 20 capsules (15000RP) it's 82% of not getting the skin
• at 25 capsules (18750RP) it's 78% of not getting the skin
• at 29 capsules (21750RP) it's 75% of not getting the skin

The calculations were made, as the Redditor mystireon explains, by generously assuming that the skin has a 1% chance of dropping. And, these are cumulative chances, which means that opening the 29th capsule does not mean players have a 25% of getting the skin, but that they had a 25% chance of getting the skin by opening said capsule and all the ones before.

In other words, there is, realistically, very little chance of getting the Dark Erasure Jhin skin without spending 200$ on capsules and getting it as a guaranteed drop.